"The Future? Why Bother?"
…said a friend of mine, recently. Warming to her theme, she continued, “If you ask me, it’s all gone to hell in a handbag. Live for the day, that’s what I say.”
I don’t blame her. I often feel the same when the weight of the world bears heavily on me. I can hardly contemplate the future when I feel exhausted by today, be it from the news of calamity or war, yet another dismal climate report, a friend on the edge of the corporate hamster wheel or the pile of dishes waiting to be washed.
JUST HAND ME THE MARSHMALLOW, PLEASE.
It’s natural to stay focused on the short term. It’s a survival mechanism that’s hardwired in us.
In business as in life, seeking those quick wins, those “low hanging fruits,” those endorphin-releasing clicks and likes can make us feel better and give us that illusion of control. And the truth is: it’s ok to live in the present, to be in the moment and reach for immediate rewards and results if that’s what’s called for.
But there is a flip side to this argument. Short termism has well documented consequences for business and society.
Especially in the context of our insatiable quest for scale, the implications of fast and immediate growth are clear: from economic inequality, exclusion, or climate inaction to the deprioritization of corporate investments for long term value (like R&D or talent development).
The myopia of the near and now can certainly provide market boosts and quick fixes but also leave a trail of unintended and unforeseen consequences along the way.
Short term thinking can also lead to a lack of preparedness. Panicked reactions to the recent pandemic certainly demonstrated the importance of having a degree of foresight for such “Black Swan Events.”
We certainly cannot allow ourselves and our businesses to simply be swept by these tides of change. Future resilience and adaptation becomes all the more important in this era where such change is constantly hurtling toward us and disruptions are aplenty.
Enter: Foresight & Futures. Where the methods meet the moment.
The Interchange System: A good image for the many intersecting data points that inform scenario mapping.
Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking (shortened as “Foresight and Futures”) are ways of planning and actioning for the future. They are part of a larger spectrum of “Futures” disciplines that range from highly strategic to highly conceptual. There’s room for everyone.
For organizations and businesses, Strategic Foresight is particularly interesting. This once niche organizational discipline reserved for the military, high level think tanks and oil corporations is now being democratised for local governments, NGOs and companies. It appeals to those who understand that traditional 1-3-5 year cycles or terms don’t cut it in ensuring business sustainability.
Foresight & Futures asks us to scan for historical and current signals of change to understand patterns, interactions and relationships to larger systems and how these might affect our organizations, businesses and communities. It also requires an exploration of scenarios in order to assess potential risks, plan around opportunities and imagine possibilities.
Because it ventures into longer term horizons, Foresight & Futures requires a methodical exploration of the complexities of the future. This involves expanding our minds by employing hindsight, systems thinking, intuitive sense making and imagination. With the guidance of a good Foresight / Futures Practitioner, this can lead you or your team to more robust strategies, wider opportunities and bolder action plans.
Thankfully, the language around all this has become much more accessible, demystifying a traditionally “high level” strategic tool by breaking it down for a wider audience. Nonetheless, it requires skill and practice and a good foresighter or futurist will use a trans disciplinary approach to ensure an inclusive and dynamic futures process.
KEEPING IT REAL: FORESIGHT & FUTURES ARE NOT INFALLIABLE “SILVER BULLETS.”
They cannot predict the future with any precision. Nor can they provide the certainty many seek. Why, you ask? Quite simply because the future is a wild beast, unpredictable and untamable. There are more variables in the future than grains of sand on a beach, and no fancy spreadsheet or expert opinion can capture them all. At least for the moment!
Take the example of the rise of the internet in the '90s. Did anyone foresee that it would lead to the decline of traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, reshape entire industries, and give birth to digital giants that would rule the world? Most crystal balls, no matter how polished, did not see all that coming from the onset. Or think about the recent pandemic – did anyone have a foolproof plan for that? (WhatsApp messages can certainly reveal the answer to that). Foresight can only do so much in the face of unprecedented disruptions.
So why think about and plan for the future at all?
What changes do you see coming? Who benefits from it? And who doesn’t?
1. THE SIGNALS ARE ALIGHT. AND THEY ARE ALL IN RED.
Whether it’s AI, the threat of war, the climate emergency, deglobalization, geopolitical rifts, value shifts, demographic upheavals, it seems we are standing at the precipice of a new world order.
We can choose to be future-swept or we can tool ourselves to FUTURE-FORGE.
Considering the long horizon methodically, especially when combined with other, generative and collaborative ways of thinking and doing, allows us to better navigate the uncertainty and ensure our organizations, businesses and impacts are built to last.
2. IT’S THE RESPONSIBLE THING TO DO. AND RESPONSIBLE IS SMART.
In fact, a sense of responsibility must be built into any consideration of the future as we have done at Forge. Having the ability and the agency to influence the future which so many do not have due to their circumstances, requires being conscious of who might be left behind.
World economic and demographic inequalities remain vast, e.g. +/- 700 million people live in extreme poverty, to this day no country has yet achieved full gender parity. These will only be exacerbated by the effects of climate change, societal polarisation, tech autocracies and shifts in power dynamics.
Unless you aspire for a dystopian future, these “big, hairy problems” will eventually arrive at your boardroom and your doorstep. They will affect everyone from consumers, employees, partners, stakeholders, shareholders to your family and self. “A chain is only as strongest as its weakest link.”
A good way to frame and operationalise responsibility is through Stewardship Thinking which emphasizes responsible management and care for resources, environment, and well-being, ensuring their sustainability for current and future generations. Forge posits that this should go beyond legacy companies or family firms but infuse each and every boardroom, office, work and living space.
3. SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO SAY “WELL, HINDSIGHT IS 20/20” AS AN EXCUSE.
Because you actually use it to inform decision making today. “Look back to look forward” is a key motto for Futures. Hindsight offers lessons from the past, identifying mistakes, missed opportunities, successful strategies, and observable patterns, allowing for more informed decision-making. By reflecting on the past and combining that with current-day signals of the future, we can mitigate risks, adjust goals and allocate resources more effectively for a more adaptive and resilient approach to future challenges.
Hallucinogenics not required. Just informed intuition, imagination and a strong dose of “urgent optimism.”
4. IT AWAKENS IMAGINATION. AND WITH GREAT “WHAT IFs” COME GREAT OPPORTUNITIES - AND HOPE.
Futures Thinking asks us to do deep and wide scans to get a better view of what is emergent from both the negative and the positive, both or neither. By leveraging these signals to develop future scenarios, we can begin to ask What If? to imagine new pathways and opportunities that can alter future trajectories and bring about a sense of optimism and hope.
This element of Foresight and Futures has particular resonance with me. As a Filipino living in Europe, I am a witness to the sad stories around Filipino and international migration in these parts. For many conflict migrants, there was no choice nor agency in the matter. But for economic migrants, particularly parents who opt to leave their children back home, one might wonder: What if parents could imagine alternative or collective income generation ventures to what they are normally exposed to… would that give them greater confidence and motivation to stay in their home communities with their families? What if supporting social and government systems could enable different visions of success beyond aspiring for foreign currency? A complex, systemic problem like this requires imagination and long term thinking towards a roadmap for better futures.
5. IT KEEPS US HUMBLE & MENTALLY AGILE SO WE CAN THINK BEYOND THE MARGINS
Because there is no such thing as being future-proofed, any futures exploration must begin with a sense of humility, accepting that we cannot predict everything, and that sometimes we will be caught off guard. It also demands courage to place bets based on these assessments, knowing that at its core, anything can happen.
It's a reality check that keeps us on our feet and nimble in our thinking in order to ask the right questions, develop provocative scenarios and generate expansive ideas that can accommodate the least of our stakeholders.
For this reason, Futures work must come with a strong sense of responsibility and accountability. In a world where half the global population lives in extreme poverty and lacks the agency to uplift their situation, any Futures endeavor comes with privilege. So we need to consider those who cannot benefit from the futures we create and find ways for those futures to stretch past our usual margins.
In the midst of uncertainty, futures thinking builds the capability and confidence to sit with ambiguity and make bold decisions that will allow thriving futures for all.
The Inclusive Imaginaries toolkit from UNDP is a great resource for Participatory Futures.
6. IT BRINGS PEOPLE TOGETHER. THE FUTURE CANNOT BE FORGED ALONE.
As humans, ours is inevitably a shared, collective future. So quite simply, that means inviting those affected by the future you want to create to have a seat at the table for a big brainstorming session about what lies ahead. Planning for the future is not just a crystal ball gazing exercise done by “futurists.” It’s citizens, experts, and stakeholders working together to navigate the unchartered.
“Participatory Futures” has a bunch of perks. It taps into collective wisdom, bringing diverse viewpoints into play. It boosts buy-in and accountability because people have a say in shaping the future. It allows everyone to understand and appreciate contexts for activating that future.
And at the end of the day, that’s what it boils down to: FORESIGHT MUST LEAD TO ACTIONABLE FUTURES.
While these methods meet the moment, Foresight and Futures are the spark, not the engine. Ultimately, it is the marriage of strategic foresight with decisive and inclusive action that truly propels us into a future for all that we can forge and call our own.
Marite P. Irvine is the Founder of FORGE, a Foresight & Futures Research, Design & Ideas Practice